William Katz:  Urgent Agenda

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DUMP TRUMP? – AT 9:25 A.M. ET:  This may be a lot more serious than we think right now.  Can Donald Trump survive as the GOP presidential candidate?  The Friday tape release was devastating, and it's being reported that there are more tapes to come.  From The Hill:

Senate Republican leadership and vulnerable GOP incumbents are wrestling with the dilemma of whether to fully withdraw their support from Donald Trump.

They are weighing the potential impact of further party division on voter turnout versus the potential cost to the GOP brand if they stick with the party’s provocative nominee.

It has become clear to party leaders and strategists over the past 24 hours that Trump’s chances of winning the presidency are less than 20 percent, if not less than 10 percent. Now their main concern is saving the Senate Republican majority...

...Democratic strategists say it’s too early to say whether Trump’s implosion will revive their chances in states such as Ohio and Florida, but they think it can make a difference in toss-up states such as New Hampshire and Pennsylvania.

The question for the GOP is how far it’s leaders should go in denouncing him.

“Candidates, officeholders, Republican leaders need to not just disavow the comments, they need to unendorsed Trump and they need to work hard to preserve the Senate, the House, down-ballot races, their own personal integrity and the integrity of the party,” said John Weaver, who served as a senior strategist to Ohio Gov. John Kasich’s 2016 presidential campaign.

But other strategists say down-ballot Republican candidates need to look closely at the demographics and political trends in their home states and do what’s best for their own re-elections.

“Everybody is running a local race, which is what they’ve done from the start,” said a Senate Republican strategist. “Voters are looking for someone who can represent them and put them first, before a Clinton presidency or a Trump presidency. [Candidates] should say whatever is necessary to convince voters they will do that.”

While audio of Trump’s lewd remarks about seducing women have led many Republicans and pundits in Washington to write off any chances of an Election Day victory, voters may judge other factors as more important, the strategist cautioned.

“People are skeptical of Washington and skeptical of the press. Trump has used a tone that reflects that skepticism,” the source added.

COMMENT:  Trump has made it clear he won't withdraw.  Party rules may make it impossible to remove him as the candidate unless he's incapacitated.  Also, voting has already begun in some states, and replacing a presidential candidate and choosing a new one may simply be logistically impossible with only a month to go before the election.

On the other hand, there could be a mass defection from the presidential candidate on the part of GOP senators and Senate candidates.  They could simply tell constituents to "vote your conscience" for president, or write in a good conservative.

And remember, there could also be some bombshell that explodes in the Clinton camp in the next month, something that could damage her in a race even against the already wounded Donald Trump.

The next presidential debate is tonight.  For Trump, it's high noon.  He has to have a very solid night, and try to put this latest embarrassment behind him.   If he fails, you'll hear Taps played tomorrow morning.  Look, you never know.  He's not running against a popular figure.  The voters may surprise us, and surprise Ms. Hillary.

October 9, 2016